Winter Storm Warning Forecast Update 2117 02212026 WNUZ/NWS

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Confidence continues to increase in an area of low pressure
developing off the east coast on Sunday as a potent upper trough
digs southeast from the Great Lakes region and amplifies across the
Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic Coast. The latest 12Z
guidance continues to come into agreement on the position and
strength of the coastal low along the New Jersey coast. This
deep center of low pressure will bring ample moisture and cold
into the region for winter storm conditions Sunday night into
Monday.

This system will bring heavy snowfall into portions of the
Lower Susquehanna Valley. The WPC Winter Storm Outlook continues
to tick higher, with much of the eastern half of the forecast
area now seeing a 50 to 80 percent chance of seeing snowfall
exceed warning criteria. We have issued a Winter Storm Warning
for portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley where we currently
have the highest confidence in seeing 6 to 10 inches of
snowfall.

A prolonged period of upslope snow is also anticipated in the
Laurel Highlands as flow behind the surface low becomes
northwesterly. Most guidance continues to show a 48 hour period
from early Sunday morning through early Tuesday morning where
snow should fall, with 8 to 12 inches of snow expected along
the ridges of Cambria and Somerset Counties. As a result, we
have issued a Winter Storm Warning for those two counties as
well. The enhanced wind gusts on the back side of this low
pressure system could allow for gusts up to 40 mph in the
Laurels, and brief periods of blizzard like conditions are not
out of the question.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A high degree of uncertainty remains with
expected snowfall over the rest of central PA.

Significant uncertainty still remains regarding snowfall over
the rest of Central PA, with the trickiest part of the forecast
stems from the potential for quasi-stationary north/south band
of heavy snow (lasting several hours or more) along the axis of
an inverted llvl trough and leading edge of the lower/deeper DGZ
that will be situated from the Scent Mtns to somewhere between
KUNV/KSEG and KIPT later Sunday afternoon/Sunday night.

A couple of things to keep in mind regarding this snowfall
forecast:
* There is still some uncertainty regarding the eventual track
  of the low. A more westerly track will favor heavier snowfall
  over parts of Central PA while an easterly track may shift the
  heaviest snow to the east of our area.
* As the low quickly deepens off the east coast, expect areas of
  enhanced low to mid level frontogenesis and UVVEL to develop
  in the western periphery of the system. Much of this banding
  will likely set up east of the CWA, but could still develop
  across parts of our central and eastern zones.
* Multiple models continue to show a snow band associated with
  an area of low level convergence within an inverted trough
  extending northwestward from the coastal low. While this type
  of band is more likely to set up somewhere in central PA, it
  will likely be narrow with a widely varying snowfall totals
  on either side of the band.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Ice jam risk continues into the weekend, but no
significant flooding expected.

Cooler air moves in this evening as winds become westerly,
allowing for a few snow showers over the north and west.

The ice jam threat continues into the weekend as daytime highs
in the 30s and 40s will support additional ice breakup. The
threat for significant flooding is low as we are not
anticipating any significant rainfall. Flooding would likely be
localized and minor.

About Post Author

Lancaster NUZ Team

WNUZ Website Admin Top Level

wlri93fm@gmail.com

https://wnuz.org

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