Plowable snowfall increasingly likely on Sunday and Monday.02/23/2026

Posted on 02/20/2026 by Lancaster NUZ Team

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Confidence continues to increase in an area of low pressure developing off the east coast on Sunday as a potent upper trough moves offshore. While there are still some differences in the exact track of the surface low after it develops, largely due to differences in the timing of when/where the phasing of the northern and southern branches of the jet stream occurs, most of the 12Z guidance has continued the recent northwest trend that has been observed over the last few model cycles. This would likely bring heavy snowfall into portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley. The WPC Winter Storm

Outlook continues to tick higher, with much of the eastern half of the forecast area now seeing a 50 to 80 percent chance of seeing snowfall exceed warning criteria. We have issued a Winter Storm Watch for portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley where we currently have the highest confidence

in seeing 4 to 6 inches of snowfall. A couple of things to keep in mind regarding this snowfall forecast: * There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the eventual track of the low. A more westerly track will favor heavier snowfall over parts of Central PA while an easterly track may shift the heaviest snow to the east of our area. * As the low quickly deepens off the east coast, expect areas of enhanced frontogenesis to develop in the western periphery of the system. This will create areas of enhanced snowfall rates, but there is currently low confidence on where these heavier bands set up. A prolonged period of upslope snow is also anticipated in the Laurel Highlands as flow behind the surface low becomes northwesterly. Most guidance continues to show a 48 hour period from early Sunday morning through early Tuesday morning where snow should fall, with 4 to 8 inches of snow expected along the ridges of Cambria and Somerset Counties. As a result, we have issued a Winter Storm Watch for those two counties as well. Significant uncertainty still remains regarding snowfall over the rest of Central PA, but snow associated with the upper low is likely Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Some models continue to show an area of enhanced surface convergence associated with an inverted trough extending northwestward from the coastal low, but it remains to be seen where this feature will set up.