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Excessive heat remains in place today and should hold into Friday from the Desert Southwest into the California Central Valley. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in place. Severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of the Central and Northern Plains today and should focus across portions of Kansas, Missouri and Illinois Friday.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center
College Park MD 323 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019
Valid 00Z Fri Aug 16 2019 – 00Z Sun Aug 18 2019
…Heavy rain possible for the Florida Big Bend… …Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the Central Plains… …Heat continues for the southern tier with excessive heat in the Southwest… Well above normal temperatures will continue on Friday over the Southwest. Excessive heat warnings remain in effect for the lower elevations of southern Arizona to central California where temperatures will be in the 105 to 115F range. Overnight lows will only drop into the 80s to near 90 degrees for the warmest locations. Eastward, temperatures in the mid and upper 90s will combine with dew points in the 70s to yield heat indices in the low 100s in parts of the Southeast. West Texas will see increasing temperatures Friday into Saturday over 100F. A frontal boundary will linger across the central Plains into the Midwest into Saturday which will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms which could be severe. Locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding will be possible, especially northern Missouri tomorrow and into Iowa/Illinois on Saturday. To the south, another stationary boundary will lay astride the Southeast coast from the Tidewater of Virginia southwestward to Georgia into the lower Mississippi Valley. Showers and storms will bubble up around this front but may be especially heavier around the Florida Big Bend as Gulf moisture aides in sustaining convection. Flash flooding may be possible there Fri/Sat as well. By Saturday, a front will drop out of western/central Canada and bring much cooler air to parts of Montana and North Dakota. Temperatures in the 80s will be replaced by upper 60s and low 70s behind the front. Some light to modest rain will accompany the front. To the east, scattered showers/storms will dot the landscape on Friday in the eastern Great Lakes/Northeast in typical summertime fashion with a bit less coverage on Saturday.
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