Area Forecast Discussion

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
633 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Dense fog has dissipated, but low clouds remain stubborn
  across parts of central PA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Feeling more like early Spring than late Winter this week

2) Periods of rain Wednesday, Thursday night and Friday

3) Mixed/wintry precipitation potential for late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Feeling more like early Spring than late Winter
this week

Following one of the coldest first 2 weeks of February on
record, mild weather for this time of year will be in place this
week with daily max/min temperature anomalies running 10-20
degrees above the historical average. Conditions will feel more
like early Spring than late Winter. Depending on the time of
arrival and coverage of precipitation later this week, daytime
temps may not get as quite as warm as currently forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Periods of rain Wednesday, Thursday night and
Friday

Following one of the driest first 2 weeks of February on
record, much needed periods of rainfall are likely on Wednesday
and again Thursday night into Friday. Total QPF during the mid
to late week period ranges between 0.50 to 1.00 inches with the
highest amounts shaded toward the NW portion of the fcst area.
While we do not expect the rainfall to cause flooding, the
warmer temperatures and increased flows on rivers and streams
should increase the risk of ice jams at least on the margin.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Mixed/wintry precipitation potential for late
week

An overrunning/cold air damming pattern setup may be in place
for late in the week. This suggests an increased risk for mixed
and wintry precipitation which is being signaled by the latest
NBM. Details are not yet clear, but the Friday morning commute
may be impacted.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some clouds never broke up this afternoon across the northern
and easter tiers of the state. Clearing occurred in the
southwest at JST and AOO, but VFR conditions at these two sites
will not last long this evening. Most guidance shows low clouds
and fog redeveloping overnight tonight. This should bring IFR or
LIFR ceilings to most, if not all, of Central PA once again.
The extent of visibility restrictions is highly uncertain, but
BFD, JST, and AOO currently have the highest chance of seeing
IFR visibility tonight. That being said, there is a 40-50
percent chance of all other TAF sites seeing visibility drop to
IFR as well. Where clearing occurred fog will develop, and where
low clouds remain they will likely lower to IFR or lower.

A low pressure system passing to our north tonight will bring a
few rain showers to northern PA. While we expect most airfields
to remain dry, there is around a 15 percent chance of a brief
shower at BFD and IPT. Conditions Tuesday will be slow to
improve with VFR not likely area wide. The best chance for VFR
will be over the southeast at MDT and LNS after 18Z.

Outlook...

Wed...IFR -RA/cigs N, MVFR -RA/cigs elsewhere.

Thu...Dry early, then rain later in the day with
restrictions possible.

Fri...Rain with restrictions likely. Some snow may mix in over
northern PA.

Sat...Lingering rain and snow showers.