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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 225 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Extreme Cold Watch expanded through Sunday morning to include all of central PA * Winter Weather Advisory issued for the Laurel Highlands && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Road snow and slippery to slowed travel Friday PM through Saturday AM 2) Blustery with dangerous to extremely cold wind chills Friday night through Sunday morning; coldest weekend of winter 3) Moderating temperatures during the second week of February && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Road snow and slippery to slowed travel Friday PM through Saturday morning Initial wave of light snow (accum rates <0.50 in/hr) spreads from NW to SE across CPA Friday morning through the afternoon. Secondary shot of snow/snow showers later Friday through Friday night will be driven by a strong arctic frontal passage followed by plummeting temperatures and blustery winds into Saturday morning. Although moisture will be modest in an environment with well below normal PWs, the orographic/upslope forcing/ascent into a deepening DGZ will be sufficient to wring out a moderate to locally heavy (fluffy) snowfall in the Laurel Highlands. Higher-end winter weather advisory has been issued (based on a combination of snow+wind+blowing snow preceding xcold) with near-blizzard conditions possible at times. The usual summits and ski resorts along Laurel Mtn could pick up as much as 6-8 inches of high SLR fluff. Elsewhere along the Allegheny Plateau, a general 1-2" is expected with a 0.5-1" most likely in the central and southern ridge/valley region. We still can`t rule out a couple of heavier snow showers or brief squalls along the arctic front, but timing is not ideal and SNSQ parameter signal is weak. KEY MESSAGE 2: Blustery with dangerous to extremely cold wind chills Friday night through Sunday morning; coldest weekend of winter Prepare for the coldest weekend of winter with wind chills 20 to 30 below zero possible/likely early Saturday morning. We expanded the extreme cold watch to cover the rest of the CWA and extended in time; however we would anticipate a warning and/or advisory to be issued in the next 1-2 fcst cycles. The lowest wind chills occur early Saturday morning, but remain below zero through Saturday afternoon before dropping back to double digits below zero Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Blustery winds may exceed advisory criteria (>40kt) especially over the southern half of the forecast area on Saturday; a wind advisory may be needed. Blowing and drifting snow is also a concern given the dry snow character and gusty winds. KEY MESSAGE 3: Moderating temperatures during the second week of February For those looking for a break in the cold pattern, here you go. Confidence continues to increase that temperatures will moderate during the second week of February and climb back to seasonal levels or near the historical average for early to mid February. This "warmup" puts mixed precipitation on the table with the next weather system that could arrive Wed/Thu next week. The guidance has come into better agreement concerning the precip pattern evolution with best odds around the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Finally got everyone clear with VFR conditions as of late morning. A decent afternoon expected for aviation. Temperatures slow to warm up. Guidance still shows some lower CIGS into western areas later tonight, especially JST, BFD, and evening AOO. More borderline for UNV. There could be some fog and hz as well with these lower CIGS at these 3 sites, perhaps a bit of flurries, as dewpoints come up some. Main forcing for snow showers will be with a strong cold front on Friday, reaching western areas in the afternoon and eastern areas in the evening. Expect bands of snow showers with the front. Main gusty winds with and behind the front. The bigger issue will likely be behind the front with falling temperatures, gusty winds, and blowing and drifting of the snow. Saturday could be one of the coldest days of the winter so far. Not a nice day to be on the ramp etc. Additional snow showers Friday night into Saturday will be mainly at BFD and JST. Winds slowly decrease later Sunday. Outlook... Fri PM...CFROPA. Gusty north wind. W: SHSN with IFR (near 100%), LIFR poss (50%), SNSQ also poss (30%). Cent: SHSN. IFR likely (70%). SE: -SN ending then VFR. Sat...Sct SHSN/MVFR AM (IFR poss) BFD/JST. Gusty north wind. Sun...-SN/MVFR poss W. VFR E. Mon-Tue...No sig wx. && .EQUIPMENT... KCCX will be down for intermittently through this afternoon for an important software upgrade. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-025-033-034-037-041- 042. Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for PAZ019-026>028-035-036-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for PAZ024-033. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Martin EQUIPMENT...Dangelo
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